We’re halfway through 2025 (woof). I don’t pretend to be a prophet, and on the contrary, I often enjoy going back and looking at my predictions for the year and seeing what I got wrong.
So, let’s do that.
Prediction 1: Collaborative AI systems
“Collaborative AI systems, which involve multiple specialized agents working together, will become increasingly prevalent …”
Where we’re at: OpenAI has shipped “building blocks” for exactly that, letting devs wire up fleets of GPTs that plan, delegate, and ship deliverables (while we eat breakfast). Anthropic followed with a multi-Claude research rig that ping-pongs tasks across agents and external tools.
Result: On track ✅
Prediction 2: Autonomous agents run the boring stuff
“AI agents will advance into autonomous entities capable of managing a wide range of tasks …”
Where we’re at: Google-DeepMind’s Project Mariner agents juggle ten tasks at once, surfacing answers from mail, Drive, and Slack while legal signs off. Real autonomy is limited though. Every production rollout still chains agents to guardrails. Still, the office drone lost another chunk of day-job scope.
Result: On track ✅
Prediction 3: Custom small models for corps
“The demand for tailored AI solutions will rise as businesses seek to address their unique needs …”
Where we’re at: Gartner says task-specific models will triple the use of general behemoths by 2027, and the shift already shows in pilot counts. Microsoft’s Phi-4-reasoningsits on Azure with memory-friendly footprints that finance teams love.
Result: On track ✅
Prediction 4: Regulation turns the screws
“As AI capabilities expand, so will the scrutiny it faces … The European Union's AI Act will serve as a benchmark …”
Where we’re at:
- Sacramento’s privacy watchdog opened comment on deep audits and automated-decision regs (AB 853 even demands watermarking).
- Brussels finalized the AI Act; general-purpose rules kick in August 2025. Firms are now scrambling for “code-of-practice” brownie points.
Result: On track ✅
Prediction 5: Political theater shapes U.S. oversight
“The relationship between political figures such as Donald Trump and Elon Musk will impact AI regulatory frameworks in the United States.”
Where we’re at: The White House shredded Biden’s AI order with a market-first “Removing Barriers” decree, House Republicans jammed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that freezes state AI law for ten years into Senate limbo, California AB 853 orders any GenAI platform above one million users to bolt on a watermark detector, Kansas bans DeepSeek on state devices, Texas drags a health-care AI vendor into court for bogus accuracy pitches, and Musk roasted Trump’s tax monster on X (then wiped the roast).
Result: On track ✅
Prediction 6: The EU Act shapes global regulation
“The EU’s AI Act is anticipated to inspire similar regulations worldwide …”
Where we’re at: The Brussels Commission issued system-definition guidance in March, the new AI Office rolled out draft duties for GPAI providers on 22 April, and every vendor now studies the conformity templates ahead of the August 2026 enforcement cliff. Canada’s AIDA committee replied in February by mirroring the EU risk ladder and racing for a vote before the autumn election. Brazil’s Chamber weighs a Senate-approved bill that copies the same high-risk bans, and Seoul’s Basic Act demands human oversight for “large-scale” systems in lockstep with Brussels language.